Market for the Day , April 15 ….


Asian market is trading mixed. Chinese shares dropped most in 2 weeks as financial shares retreated. Q1 GDP data due tom is expected to show growth of 1.5% v/s 1.8% growth in Q4 indicating deeper slowdown. Most brokerages have cut growth forecast for China amid signs of soft domestic and external demand.

Chinese banking regulator has ordered nation’s 68 Trust Cos to b prepared to provide funding or sell their stake as risk of default rises in the $ 1.9 tn industry for high yield instruments. Earlier yesterday US stocks gained as Citi earnings beat est. Commodity rose on worsening Ukraine situation. Oil moved to 5 Week high.

Local market is expected to be action packed with lot of data due. IIP data released last Friday post market close showed contraction of 1.9% in February, after a marginal uptick of 0.8% in January. With WPI/CPI data for March and Infosys results due today, expect volatile market session. Truncated week will also impact volume.

CPI and WPI are expected to rise to 8.37% and 5.63% in March from 8.10% & 4.68% in Feb. Moderation over the past 3M was mostly due to the sharp sequential correction in veg prices. Recent data suggests that veg prices in retail markets have moved higher in March. Notwithstanding the expected uptick in inflation in March and also the slump in the IIP, the RBI is expected to stay on a pause mode in June.

In the latest opinion poll NDTV predicts 275 seats for NDA 3 more than the clear majority – a big +ve for the market. A Separate reports shows that over last 4 weeks, India dedicated ETF participation superseding that of it’s EM-focused peers. Outflow from India-focused funds also eased. Allocations by Asia ex-Japan funds favor India/Taiwan over Brazil/Korea.
Watch Out for :

1. UK CPI, EZ Trade Balance
3. India CPI and WPI March(BBG Exp 8.37%/5.63% in March fm 8.10%/4.68% MoM)

Nifty future is trading with 6 points gain in early morning trades.

Nifty View : Nifty continued its uptrend last week. With both weekly and monthly momentum rising, the uptrend is likely to stay intact. Any Dip is likely to be corrective in nature and should be bought into.
Daily momentum has unwound from over bought zone and is testing the neutral zone; a fresh positive crossover in daily momentum would add to further upside impetus. If nifty crosses & sustains above 6810, can go all the way upto 6890 zone. Put writing is seen @ 6700 and call writing @ 6800/6900

Corporate Action :
Q4 result…Infosys

Short term Trading Idea : Tata Coffee, India Bull RE, United Spirit, SI Bank, Apollo Hosp, Jain Irrigation

Investment Call : ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra, RIL, PI Ind, Motherson Sumi, AIA Engineering, Munjal Showa .

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