NIFTY futures higher than last month …


Rolls in NIFTY futures higher than last month with NIFTY rolls at 58.8% (last month 56.8%), lower than 6-month average of 62.9%, however in value terms, it is at 17405 Cr. versus 11400 Cr. (NIFTY was up by 3% in last series, number of shares also have increased to 254 lakh versus 170 lakh shares).

On other hand, market wide roll was flat at 75% (last month 76%) in value terms 52206 Cr which is more than last month 36644 Cr., (in share terms it saw increase, along with price action as some individual stocks have increased 10-15% on price chart) leading to overall position flat 69611 Cr Vs 48045 Cr. (highest in last 12 months) in futures positions Roll Cost is at 0.96 which is higher than last month of 0.67, even higher than 12mth avg. of 0.57, with NIFTY cost itself at 0.85 (which is higher than 0.53 avg. of 6 months, and last month 0.62).

Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. ratio has increased to 0.33 (last month 0.31), implies market participants have increased bets on Index, implying market participants trying to bet on index stocks.

Nifty front PCR_OI opened above 1 at 1.16 (above last month 0.86, also more than 6mth Avg. 1.02.); with 7000 CE having highest OI across options as 25.5 lakh, (4.8 lakh shares add on Thursday), implying CE writers are convinced NIFTY will find resistance around 7000-7200; on support side PE OI is at 6500 19.8 lakh shares, Thursday 6.12 lakh Shares add), implying 6500-6600 will be crucial support zone; Index options positions have increased to 102,588 Cr (last month 56686 Cr) clearly can be attributed to Price of Options as market participants clearly placing bets on VIX which has given break out above at 28.10, till it remains above 28.10 NIFTY will continue to show sharp Volatile moves, We feel till election Nifty trading range would be 6550-7050, as we enter the MAY Series.

Among stock futures positions have declined in Mid Caps, implying traders booking profits as we approach event, with some of traders favourite sector showing drop in roll (though base has become bigger); some stocks however showing more strength than others; some of the sectors that can outperform Index in the APRIL Series OIL & GAS (OMCs), BANKING, CAP. Goods, TELECOM C-o-C improve; On other hand aggressive Shorts rolled IT, INFRASTRUCTUE, POWER, MEDIA; other Sectors CEMENT, AUTO, FMCG, FINANCE Individual stock picking required.

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