Currencies World for April 28 ,2014 …

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MCX-SX USDINR May 2014

Rupee posted its biggest single-day gain in a month and a half, snapping a three-session falling streak as good dollar sales by custodian banks and two large corporates helped offset greenback demand seen from oil importers. However, for the week, the rupee fell 0.5 percent against the dollar, posting its worst performance since the week ended Jan. 24, with trading influenced by falls in regional currencies on a weekly basis amid worries over tensions in Ukraine and a slide in the Chinese yuan.

The rupee has fallen for four consecutive weeks, retreating ever since it hit an eight-month high of 59.5950 in early April. Although continued strong foreign purchases of shares have helped support the rupee, any changes in those flows could impact the local currency, with investors still focused on the outcome of the national elections due in mid-May. The partially convertible rupee closed at 60.60/61 per dollar compared with 61.07/08 on Wednesday, rising 0.8 percent on day, its biggest single-day gain since March 6. Trading was dominated by dollar sales from custodian banks, offsetting the strong month-end demand from importers. That dollar demand helped offset a fall in domestic shares, which retreated from their fourth consecutive record highs hit earlier in the session on disappointment over earnings.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 33.46% to settled at 214269 while prices down -0.455 rupee, now USDINR is getting support at 60.67 and below same could see a test of 60.4975 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 61.2725, a move above could see prices testing 61.7025.

MCX-SX EURINR May 2014

Euro seen under pressure as concerns over mounting tensions in Ukraine continued to weigh on risk-related assets, while investors awaited the release of U.S. consumer sentiment data. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that any worsening of the euro area inflation outlook may prompt the bank to adopt a broad-based asset buying scheme.

He ruled out any broad-based deflation risks in the euro area, saying falling food and energy prices along with weak demand has pushed inflation into low territory. Eurozone inflation eased to 0.5 percent in March, which is the lowest since November 2009. Confidence among German firms improved unexpectedly in April, reports said citing Ifo survey.

Business confidence rose to 111.2 in April from 110.7 in March, while it was forecast to fall to 110.4. The current conditions index, at the same time, improved less than expected to 115.3 from 115.2 in March. The expected score was 115.6. Expectations among businesses strengthened unexpectedly to 107.3 from 106.4.

The pace of decline in Spain’s industrial producer prices eased in March, figures from the statistical office INE showed Friday. Producer prices fell 1.2 percent year-on-year, following a 2.9 percent slump in February, which was the biggest fall since October 2009.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.23% to settled at 7007 while prices down -0.69 rupee, now EURINR is getting support at 84.09 and below same could see a test of 83.7825 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 84.9075, a move above could see prices testing 85.4175.

MCX-SX GBPINR May 2014

GBP dropped as concerns over mounting tensions in Ukraine weighed on market sentiment but downside was limited after the release of positive U.K. retail sales data. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales rose 0.1% in March, beating expectations for a 0.4% fall. Retail sales in February were revised down to a 1.3% increase from a previously estimated 1.7% gain.

A separate report showed that U.K. mortgage approvals rose by 45,900 last month, compared to expectations for an increase of 48,900. February’s mortgage approvals were revised down to a 47,200 rise from a previously estimated 47,600 increase. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious after Ukrainian forces killed up to five pro-Moscow rebels.

In response, Russia launched army drills near the border, sparking fears its troops would invade. U.K. retailers expect sales to expand at a faster pace next month, the latest monthly survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed. According to Distributive Trades survey, retailers report sales growth for the fifth consecutive month in April.

A balance of 30 percent reported higher sales in April, which was a significant improvement from 13 percent seen in March and above the 17 percent forecast. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Washington was drawing closer to imposing more sanctions on Moscow.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.43% to settled at 7985 while prices down -0.705 rupee, now GBPINR is getting support at 102.2 and below same could see a test of 101.8425 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 103.1575, a move above could see prices testing 103 7575.

MCX-SX JPYINR May 2014

Yen reversed course and weakened after annual consumer price inflation rose less than expected in March. Nationwide consumer prices in Japan were up 1.6 percent on year in March, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said – in line with expectations and up from 1.5 percent in February.

Core CPI, which strips out the volatile costs of food, added an annual 1.3 percent – unchanged from the previous month but shy of forecasts for 1.4 percent. Overall inflation for the Tokyo region, considered a leading indicator for the nationwide trend, spiked 2.9 percent on year in April – below expectations for 3.0 percent but up sharply from 1.3 percent in March.

An index measuring corporate service prices in Japan was up 0.7 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said, standing at 97.1. BOJ Governor Kuroda said inflation may exceed the official estimate in the fiscal year ended March.

Consumer price inflation was slightly higher in fiscal 2013 that the central bank’s projection of 0.7 percent, he told a parliamentary session. The economy is still on track toward achieving stable 2 percent inflation. Kuroda reiterated that the bank will continue its quantitative and qualitative easing program to take inflation to 2 percent.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 170.49% to settled at 1393 while prices down -0.365 rupee, now JPYINR is getting support at 59.49 and below same could see a test of 59.32 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 59.97, a move above could see prices testing 60.28.

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