Currencies World 02-07-2014 …

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MCX-SX USDINR Jul 2014

Rupee fell posting its first quarterly fall in three, as suspected intervention by the central bank continues to prevent the currency from gaining much above 60 to the dollar. The Reserve Bank of India has been frequently buying dollars ever since the rupee touched as much as 58.33 to the dollar on May 23, its highest in 11 months, in a bid to prevent the currency from appreciating too much.

India’s fiscal deficit in the first two months of the 2014/15 financial year touched 2,408.37 billion rupees ($40.05 bln), or 45.6 percent of the full-year target, government data showed. The deficit was 33.3 percent during the comparable period in the previous fiscal year. Net tax receipts were at 286.51 billion rupees in the first two months of the current fiscal year to March 2014, while total expenditure was about 2.8 trillion rupees.

India’s total external debt stood at $440.6 billion at the end of March, up $31.2 billion or 7.6 percent from the end of March 2013, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement. The rise in external debt during the period was due to an increase in deposits mobilised from non-resident Indians, the RBI said.

The share of India’s short-term debt in the total external debt was at $89.2 billion or 20.3 percent as at end-March compared with 23.6 percent a year ago, the RBI added. Now USDINR is getting support at 60.4 and below same could see a test of 60.195 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 60.705, a move above could see prices testing 60.805.

USDINR Intraday Highlights

• USDINR trading range for the day is 60.18-60.79.
• Rupee fell as suspected intervention by the central bank continues to prevent the currency from gaining much above 60 to the dollar.
• Besides RBI intervention, concerns over global factors such as the violence in Iraq, hit the rupee in June.
• India’s fiscal deficit in the first two months of the 2014/15 financial year touched $40.05 bln or 45.6 percent of the full-year target
• SELL USDINR BELOW 60.52 SL 60.72 TGT 60.40-60.28

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